Q2 2025 Special Section - The End of Oil Shale Boom
- Christian Cornwell
- Oct 7
- 1 min read
The global oil market is entering a new and under-appreciated phase of structural change. After a decade of U.S. shale-driven supply growth, recent data and trends point to a clear slowdown — despite renewed political calls to reignite drilling activity. In this piece, we examine the underlying drivers of the U.S. shale deceleration, its implications for global supply dynamics, and the broader consequences for energy markets.
While political rhetoric — most notably President Trump’s recent call to increase U.S. oil production by 3 million barrels per day — has popularized the “drill, baby, drill” mantra, the reality on the ground tells a very different story. The era of rapid, cost- defying shale expansion is over. Most key basins have passed their productive peak, and the remaining inventory of high- quality drilling locations is shrinking. Rising service costs and investor pressure for capital discipline further constrain growth potential.
Under these conditions, a 3 mb/d production surge in shale oil is unrealistic. As U.S. shale loses momentum, OPEC’s market power increases.
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